Labor supply responses to large social transfers: Longitudinal evidence from South Africa

The South African old-age social pension has been much studied by both researchers and policy makers, in part for the larger lessons that might be learned about behavioral responses to cash transfers in developing countries. In this paper, we quantify the labor supply responses of prime-aged individuals to changes in the presence of old-age pensioners in their households, using longitudinal data recently collected in northern KwaZulu-Natal. Our ability to compare households and individuals before and after pension receipt, and pension loss, allows us to control for a host of unobservable household and individual characteristics that may determine labor market behavior. We find that large cash transfers to elderly South Africans lead to increased employment among prime-aged members of their households. Perhaps more importantly, pension receipt influences where this employment takes place. We find large, significant effects on labor migration among prime-aged members upon pension arrival. The pension's impact is attributable both to the increase in household resources it represents, which can be used to stake migrants until they become self-sufficient, and to the presence of pensioners who can care for small children, which allows prime-aged adults to look for work elsewhere.

Labor supply responses to large social transfers: Longitudinal evidence from South Africa

In many parts of the developing world, rural areas exhibit high rates of unemployment and underemployment. Understanding what prevents people living in rural areas from migrating to find better jobs is central to the development process. This issue is especially salient in South Africa, where differences in earnings and employment rates between rural and urban areas are large and persistent (Chamberlain and van der Berg 2002; Leite et al. 2006; Banerjee et al. 2007). In this paper, we examine whether binding credit constraints and childcare constraints limit the ability of households to send labor migrants, and whether the arrival of a large, stable source of income-here, the South African old-age pension-helps households to overcome these constraints.

Anthropometry and mortality : a cohort study of rural Bangladeshi women.

Many authors suggest that low anthropometric levels are associated with higher mortality risk in adults, In developing countries however there have been few opportunities to test this hypothesis. In addition, there is increasing interest in the role of women's nutritional status in their own health and survival as distinct from its impact on infant outcomes. This thesis describes the results obtained from a longitudinal historical follow-up of a cohort of 2,314 rural Bangladeshi women over a period of 19 years (1975-1993). The demographic, socio-economic, and anthropometric characteristics of the study cohort are described with reference to the methods of data extraction, preparation and validation. The risk of mortality associated with different levels of the anthropometric indicators (height, weight, arm circumference and body mass index) were analysed using Cox's proportional hazards models. In addition to the basic survival models, the effects of confounding, early mortality, missing data, and young subjects, on the estimates are discussed. A significant association between BMI and mortality (p=0.009) was found in adjusted analyses which used categories that distinguished the women in the highest and lowest 10% of the cohort BMI distribution. Women with BMI levels between 10% and 90% and >90% had hazard ratios of 0.45 (95% confidence intervals 0.27,0.73) and 0.55 (0.25,1.22) respectively, when compared to women with BMI <10%. The strength of the association between BMI and mortality risk was reduced after adjusting the models for early mortality (<4 years), (p=0.068). No significant associations were found between height, arm circumference and mortality risk. In conclusion, these data provide no evidence that these anthropometric indicators would be useful in population-based screening programmes in rural Bangladesh to identify women at higher mortality risk. The findings are considered with respect to the study's methodological constraints and comparisons with other studies in order to produce recommendations for those working in research and health programmes in women's nutrition

Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006

This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider whether the high rates of non-marriage among Africans in South Africa reported in the 1980s were reversed following the political transformation underway by the 1990s. Our findings show that marriage has continued to decline with a small increase in cohabitation among unmarried couples, particularly in more urbanised areas. Comparing surveillance and census data, we highlight problems with the use of the ‘living together’ marital status category in a highly mobile population.cohabitation, demographic surveillance system, marriage, partnerships, South Africa, trends

A longitudinal population-based analysis of relationship status and mortality in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2001–2011

BackgroundMortality risk is lower in married than in unmarried men and women. However, little is known about the association between mortality and relationship status in South Africa where marriage rates are low, migration is common, many couples are not co-resident and HIV prevalence is high.MethodUsing demographic surveillance data collected from 2001 to 2011, relationship status was categorised as conjugal (partners belong to the same household), non-conjugal (partners do not belong to the same household) or not partnered. Rates of relationship formation and dissolution were calculated by age and sex. Controlling for antiretroviral treatment (ART) introduction in 2005 as well as education, sex-specific and age-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between relationship status and (1) all-cause mortality and (2) non-AIDS mortality.ResultsBefore 2005, individuals in conjugal relationships had a lower hazard of all-cause mortality in all age groups than not partnered men and women. Non-conjugal relationships lowered the risk of dying compared with not partnered men and women in fewer age groups. After ART introduction, the protective association of conjugal relationships was weaker but remained generally significant for men and women but not in non-conjugal relationships. In the later period, the association is reversed in young men (20–29?years) with mortality higher in conjugal and non-conjugal relationships compared with men not partnered. The analysis of non-AIDS deaths provided similar results.ConclusionsThe higher degree of social connections within a shared household environment that characterises conjugal relationships affords men and women greater protection against mortality

Who is falling behind? : is AIDS-related mortality contributing to increased "income" mobility in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa?

While HIV and AIDS have been described as a "disease of poverty" (see for example, Afrol News, 2002), empirical studies examining the relationship between poverty and the risk of HIV infection or AIDS mortality report mixed findings (Beegle, De Weerdt and Dercon 2008; Gillespie, Kadiyala and Greener 2007b). Recently, it has been argued that HIV is more strongly associated with inequality than poverty per se and therefore, the epidemic is more severe in countries undergoing economic transitions (Piot, Greener and Russell 2007). Thus, the universal relationship between poverty and HIV and AIDS tend to remain complex and exceptional (Gillespie et al. 2007a; Gillespie et al. 2007b)

Know your HIV epidemic (KYE) report: review of the HIV epidemic in South Africa.

In order to update and consolidate South Africa’s evidence base for HIV-prevention interventions, it was decided by the Government of South Africa to commission a synthesis of the available data on the epidemiology of prevalent and incident HIV infections, and the wider epidemic context of these infections. This know your epidemic (KYE) approach has been successfully implemented in a number of sub-Saharan African countries.2 The process involves a desk review and secondary analysis of existing biological, behavioural and socio-demographic data in order to determine the epidemiology of new HIV infections. KYE reports present key findings and policy and programme recommendations which are grounded in local evidence and aim to support decision-making and improve HIV-prevention results. In 2010, South Africa also conducted a know your response (KYR) review, which critically assessed HIV-prevention policies, programmes and resource allocations. The overall results of this HIV epidemic review and the KYR review will be published in a separate, national KYE/KYR synthesis report

Gendered Patterns of Migration in Rural South Africa

Gender is increasingly recognised as fundamental to understanding migration processes, causes, and consequences. In South Africa, it is intrinsic to the social transformations fueling high levels of internal migration and complex forms of mobility. Although female migration in Africa has often been characterised as less prevalent than male migration and primarily related to marriage, in South Africa, a feminisation of internal migration is underway, fueled by women's increasing labour market participation. In this paper, we report sex differences in patterns, trends, and determinants of internal migration based on data collected in a demographic surveillance system between 2001 and 2006 in rural KwaZulu‐Natal. We show that women were somewhat more likely than men to undertake any migration, but sex differences in migration trends differed by migration flow, with women more likely to migrate into the area than men and men more likely to out‐migrate. Out‐migration was suppressed by marriage, particularly for women, but most women were not married; both men's and women's out‐migrations were undertaken mainly for purposes of employment. Over half of female out‐migrations (vs 35% of male out‐migrations) were to nearby rural areas. The findings highlight the high mobility of this population and the extent to which gender is intimately related to the processes determining migration. We consider the implications of these findings for the measurement of migration and mobility, in particular for health and social policy and research among highly mobile populations in southern Africa. © 2013 The Authors. Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

An approach to measuring dispersed families with a particular focus on children 'left behind' by migrant parents: findings from rural South Africa

There is growing policy and academic interest in the conditions, experiences, and well-being of migrant families stretched across origin and destination households. In South Africa, the dispersal of children and migrant parents across multiple households is a commonplace childhood experience. However, in common with the broader international context, quantitative analyses of the social and residential connections between children and migrant parents in South Africa have been limited by the lack of available data that document family arrangements from the perspective of more than one household. This paper describes a new data collection effort in the origin and destination households of migrants from rural KwaZulu-Natal and explains the methodology for using this data to examine multiple household contexts for children and parents. In order to illustrate the contribution that this form of data collection effort could make to family migration studies, the paper also presents results on the living arrangements of children ‘left behind’ by migrant parents; a potentially vulnerable group whose arrangements are challenging to examine with existing data sources. The empirical results show the majority (75%) of left behind children have previously migrated and a significant proportion of migrants' children (25%) were not living in their parent's origin or destination household. The findings highlight the need for careful measurement of the circumstances of left behind children and demonstrate the contribution of linked data for providing insights into the residential arrangements of migrants' children